Atiku’s Path to Victory in 2027 Depends on Northern Support
African Democratic Congress (ADC) leader Dele Momodu says the party’s presidential hopeful can overcome President Bola Tinubu and Labour Party’s Peter Obi if he captures the North.
Momodu warned that the 2027 contest will be a tough battle for Tinubu, adding that his earlier forecast still holds: Atiku is set to win the majority of northern votes and, if he performs competitively in the South, Tinubu and Obi will lose.
He projected that Atiku will secure at least 25 percent of the vote in 26 states while dominating the North, where the largest share of votes resides.
Momodu reminded readers of the constitutional rule: a candidate must obtain the highest total votes and at least 25 percent in two‑thirds of the states to win the presidency.
He expressed confidence that Atiku can meet this requirement by consolidating support in high‑population northern states.
“Once you get voluminous votes from the north, it will leave the south limping,” Momodu said. “That explains why Tinubu is desperate to eliminate rival parties, especially those backing Atiku. The North has already taken a strategic step this cycle, ensuring no strong challenger emerges against Atiku in the region.”
He noted that Rabiu Kwankwaso is now Atiku’s running mate, and the North will not accept a secondary role. Just as Southern politicians label opponents of Tinubu as traitors, Northern leaders treat anyone not supporting Atiku as a traitor—a dynamic unlike the 2023 election.
Momodu added that, after securing the North, Atiku will turn his attention to the South, where he expects strong performance, particularly in Osun State.
About the Author
