Analyst Doubts Jonathan’s 2027 Appeal in the North
Political analyst Kabiru Ojo has questioned whether former President Goodluck Jonathan can gain traction among Northern voters ahead of the 2027 general elections. Speaking to Daily Post, Ojo highlighted regional politics, power‑rotation debates, and elite distrust as key factors that could undermine Jonathan’s chances.
Elite Opposition and Power Rotation Concerns
Ojo explained that while ordinary Nigerians in the North might look back fondly on Jonathan’s tenure — remembering a period without widespread hunger — the political elite are likely to resist his comeback. They fear his return could be seen as retribution for the coalition that removed him from office in 2015.
“For the common man in the North who only thinks about survival, many will tell you they prefer Jonathan’s time over the present administration because there was no hunger then,” Ojo said. “But the major challenge then was insecurity. Today, people face both hunger and insecurity. Can Jonathan handle and end the current full‑blown insecurity if he returns?”
Impact of a Northern Candidate on the Ballot
The analyst added that the presence of a strong Northern contender would further diminish Jonathan’s appeal. “If there is a Northern candidate, the average Northerner will not support Jonathan coming back,” he stated.
Strategic Moves Within the PDP
Ojo also noted that some Northern stakeholders might encourage Jonathan to run under the PDP banner to complicate the path for President Bola Tinubu and avoid a one‑party dominance. He suggested that a crowded field featuring Jonathan, Peter Obi, and other strong candidates could split votes in ways that benefit various regional blocs.
Power Rotation: A Political, Not Constitutional, Principle
On the issue of zoning, Ojo reminded listeners that rotation is not enshrined in the constitution but is an unwritten arrangement aimed at national unity. He pointed out that since 1999, the South has produced presidents for roughly 18 years, while the North has held the office for about 10 years.
He listed former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo, Goodluck Jonathan, and Bola Tinubu as Southern leaders, contrasting them with Northern presidents Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Muhammadu Buhari. This imbalance, he argued, fuels ongoing debates about fairness and zoning as the 2027 election approaches.
Final Assessment
Ojo concluded that, despite Jonathan’s continued national visibility, his prospects of acceptance within the Northern political bloc remain limited. “In reality, Jonathan is not a strong option for the Northern political bloc going into 2027,” he said.
He added that, while Jonathan’s image has improved, he personally believes the former president should not seek the presidency again, though the final decision rests with the law. The remarks come as a Federal High Court in Abuja prepares to rule on May 26 regarding Jonathan’s eligibility to contest the 2027 election.
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