Nigeria spent a staggering ₦12.8 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, between August 2024 and October 2025. This significant expenditure highlights the nation’s ongoing reliance on fuel imports. A detailed analysis from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) factsheet revealed this trend. It persists even as the Dangote Refinery faces operational challenges.

Nigeria’s Massive Fuel Import Bill

The calculated import value uses an average landing cost of ₦829.77 per litre. During the 15-month period, 15.435 billion litres of petrol entered the country. September 2024 recorded the highest import volume. It reached 1.52 billion litres when no local production was available. August 2024 followed with 1.38 billion litres. December 2024 saw 1.31 billion litres imported. Volumes fluctuated throughout this period. For example, October 2025 recorded 1.17 billion litres. This figure slightly dropped to 1.12 billion litres in November. January 2025 saw a sharp fall to 765.7 million litres. By April, imports hit 861 million litres, surging to 1.19 billion litres in May. The period concluded with 855.6 million litres in October 2025.

Local Production Efforts and Challenges

Local petrol supply was non-existent in August 2024. Production later resumed in September 2024, reaching 102 million litres. This figure steadily rose to 300.7 million litres in October. It further increased to 558 million litres in November. Production levels saw some dips. For instance, it fell to 306.9 million litres in December 2024. However, it generally recovered, hitting 709.9 million litres by March 2025. By October 2025, local supply stood at 529.48 million litres. Despite these efforts, the NMDPRA factsheet clearly shows Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported PMS. The nation faces immense pressure to achieve self-sufficiency through local refining.

Government Policy and Market Resistance

The Federal Government previously attempted to impose a 15% ad valorem tariff. This applied to imported PMS and diesel. The directive was issued to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and NMDPRA. However, the policy met strong opposition. Stakeholders argued that Nigeria had not yet achieved self-sufficiency. The government subsequently reversed this directive. Industry experts also cautioned against an outright ban on PMS imports. They warned such a move could create a monopoly for Dangote. This, they argued, might undermine national energy security.

Dangote Refinery’s Operational Hurdles

The Dangote Refinery has publicly raised concerns about persistent delays in vessel clearance. These bottlenecks, they state, disrupt operations significantly. They also negatively affect customers. In a letter to the NMDPRA Chief Executive, refinery CEO David Bird highlighted these issues. Bird stated, “We continue to experience delays in vessel clearance which impacts not only the refinery operations but also our customers, adding unnecessary costs and inefficiencies.”

Capacity and Plea for Government Support

Bird affirmed the refinery’s readiness to meet Nigeria’s petrol needs. He projected the refinery could supply 1.5 billion litres of PMS per month (50 million litres/day) in December and January. This capacity would increase to 1.7 billion litres per month (57 million litres/day) from February 2026 onwards. He requested the Authority’s assistance. Specifically, he sought facilitation for “unhindered” crude and feedstock imports. Bird also asked for support with product lifting by vessels. He urged the “Nigeria First” policy to genuinely benefit all citizens. Furthermore, he asked the regulator to deploy officials onsite from December 1. These officials would validate and publish the refinery’s daily supply volumes, ensuring full transparency.

Expert Views: Path to Self-Sufficiency

Henry Adigun, Director of the Institute for Energy and Extractive Industry Law, explained Nigeria’s inability to halt PMS imports yet. He cited the lack of sufficiently diversified local refining capacity. Adigun referenced Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). This section empowers the regulator to issue import licences to specific companies. These include those with active local refining licences or proven global trading records. This aims to address supply gaps. He noted that current fuel importers typically purchase from Dangote Refinery when its prices are competitive. Adigun cautioned against expecting continuous price reductions from the refinery. This is unless it’s supported by favourable international market conditions. He attributed Dangote’s recent price cut (from ₦880 to ₦865 per litre) to falling global crude prices. Expectations around a potential crude-for-naira agreement also played a role.

Economic Impact and Future Strategies

Petroleum economist Prof. Wumi Iledare highlighted the transformative role of Dangote Refinery. Its domestic petroleum supply has reshaped Nigeria’s downstream operations. This involves reducing imports and enhancing market stability. It also tests PIA 2021 regulatory provisions. Benefits include foreign exchange savings and moderated inflation. However, challenges persist. These include crude supply reliability and infrastructure bottlenecks. Regulatory overreach and market concentration also remain concerns. Prof. Iledare proposed several priority actions. These include operationalising transparent supply arrangements. Enforcing PIA provisions and de-bottlenecking logistics are also crucial. Overseeing competition and ensuring data transparency through public dashboards are vital steps. He emphasized the need for Nigeria to monitor refinery output, pricing, import volumes, and scarcity incidents. This will ensure a balanced downstream market.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s journey towards petrol self-sufficiency remains complex. The ₦12.8 trillion spent on imports starkly underscores this reality. While Dangote Refinery offers significant potential for local supply, operational challenges like vessel clearance delays and broader market dynamics demand urgent attention. A concerted effort is crucial to fully leverage local refining capacity and reduce the nation’s import dependence.