Nigeria spent an alarming ₦12.8 trillion on petrol imports between August 2024 and October 2025. This figure comes from a detailed analysis of data provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The import value was calculated using an average landing cost of ₦829.77 per litre. During this 15-month period, the country brought in a staggering 15.435 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol or fuel.

Tracking Nigeria’s Petrol Import Volumes

A breakdown of the import volumes reveals significant fluctuations. September 2024 saw the highest petrol import volume at 1.52 billion litres. This occurred when no local production was available.

August 2024 followed with 1.38 billion litres. December 2024 recorded 1.31 billion litres. Import volumes in October 2025 were 1.17 billion litres, dipping slightly to 1.12 billion litres in November.

The figure sharply dropped to 765.7 million litres in January 2025. It then rose to 770 million litres in February and 889.7 million litres in March. April recorded 861 million litres, surging to 1.19 billion litres in May.

Volumes reduced to 978 million litres in June. They rose again to 1.11 billion litres in July. Later, imports dropped to 818.4 million litres in August, 663 million litres in September, and 855.6 million litres in October 2025.

Local Production Efforts and Challenges

In contrast, local supply was non-existent in August 2024. Production resumed in September 2024 with 102 million litres. It climbed to 300.7 million litres in October and 558 million litres in November.

Production then fell to 306.9 million litres in December 2024. However, it rebounded to 592.1 million litres in January 2025, 694.4 million litres in February, and 709.9 million litres in March.

April saw 645 million litres. This was followed by 573.5 million litres in May, 543 million litres in June, and 511.5 million litres in July. Supply improved to 613.8 million litres in August. It dropped to 528 million litres in September and finished at 529.48 million litres in October 2025.

The NMDPRA factsheet clearly shows Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported PMS. This continues despite widespread calls to end imports and rely solely on local refining.

Government Policy and Industry Concerns

The Federal Government previously attempted to impose a 15% ad valorem tariff on imported PMS and diesel. This was via a presidential directive to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and NMDPRA.

The policy met strong opposition. Stakeholders warned that Nigeria had not yet achieved self-sufficiency in refining. The government later reversed the directive.

Industry players also raised concerns. They argued that banning PMS imports could create a monopoly for Dangote. Such a situation, they warned, would undermine the nation’s energy security.

Dangote Refinery’s Operational Hurdles

The Dangote Refinery has publicly complained about delays in vessel clearance. These bottlenecks, they say, are disrupting operations and affecting customers.

In a letter to the NMDPRA Chief Executive, Dangote Refinery CEO, David Bird, stated that the delays add “unnecessary costs and inefficiencies.”

Bird’s letter read: “We continue to experience delays in vessel clearance which impacts not only the refinery operations but also our customers, adding unnecessary costs and inefficiencies.”

He affirmed that the refinery is fully prepared to meet Nigeria’s PMS requirements. Bird detailed the refinery’s capacity:

“Dangote refinery is ready and able to supply 1.5 billion litres of PMS per month (50 million litres/day) in December and January. This will be followed by 1.7 billion litres per month (57 million litres/day) from February 2026 onwards.”

He urged the Authority to support the refinery in importing crude and feedstocks “unhindered.” He also requested assistance in facilitating product lifting by vessels. Bird stressed, “Please allow the ‘Nigeria First’ policy to work to the benefits of all Nigerians.”

The CEO also asked the regulator to deploy officials onsite from December 1. These officials would validate and publish the refinery’s daily supply volumes. He promised full transparency through daily publication of production and stock figures.

Expert Perspectives on Fuel Independence

Henry Adigun, Director of the Institute for Energy and Extractive Industry Law, noted that Nigeria cannot halt PMS importation just yet. He explained that local refining capacity is not sufficiently diversified.

Adigun highlighted Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). This section empowers the regulator to issue import licences. These are for companies with active local refining licences or proven global trading records. This helps address supply gaps.

He added that current fuel importers naturally purchase from the Dangote refinery when its prices are competitive. However, he cautioned that the refinery cannot sustain continuous price reductions without favorable international market conditions.

Adigun linked Dangote’s recent price cut (from ₦880 to ₦865 per litre ex-depot) to falling global crude prices. Expectations around a potential crude-for-naira agreement also played a role.

Petroleum economist, Prof. Wumi Iledare, observed that the Dangote Refinery’s domestic supply has reshaped Nigeria’s downstream operations. It has reduced imports, improved stability, and tested PIA 2021 provisions.

He listed benefits such as foreign exchange savings and inflation moderation. Yet, challenges persist. These include crude supply reliability, infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory overreach, and market concentration.

Prof. Iledare emphasized priority actions: “operationalising transparent supply arrangements, enforcing PIA provisions, de-bottlenecking logistics, overseeing competition, and ensuring data transparency through public dashboards.”

He concluded that Nigeria must monitor refinery output, pricing patterns, import volumes, scarcity incidents, and logistics KPIs. This ensures a balanced downstream market.