Nigeria spent a staggering ₦12.8 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, between August 2024 and October 2025. This significant expenditure is detailed in a recent analysis of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) factsheet.

The import value was calculated from the agency’s records. It covered 15.435 billion litres brought into the country during this 15-month period. An average landing cost of ₦829.77 per litre was used for the calculation.

Tracking Nigeria’s Petrol Import Trends

September 2024 recorded the highest petrol import volume. It reached 1.52 billion litres. At that time, no local production was available. August 2024 followed with 1.38 billion litres. December 2024 saw 1.31 billion litres imported.

In October 2025, import volumes stood at 1.17 billion litres. This figure dropped slightly to 1.12 billion litres in November. January 2025 saw a sharp fall to 765.7 million litres. Imports then rose to 770 million litres in February and 889.7 million litres in March.

April recorded 861 million litres. Imports surged to 1.19 billion litres in May. They then reduced to 978 million litres in June. Volumes rose again to 1.11 billion litres in July. Later, they dropped to 818.4 million litres in August, 663 million litres in September, and 855.6 million litres in October 2025.

Local Production and Continued Import Reliance

Local petrol supply was absent in August 2024. Production resumed in September 2024 with 102 million litres. This rose to 300.7 million litres in October and 558 million litres in November.

Production declined to 306.9 million litres in December 2024. However, it increased to 592.1 million litres in January 2025. February saw 694.4 million litres, and March recorded 709.9 million litres.

April recorded 645 million litres. This was followed by 573.5 million litres in May. June had 543 million litres, and July saw 511.5 million litres. Supply improved to 613.8 million litres in August. It then dropped to 528 million litres in September, ending at 529.48 million litres in October 2025.

Despite these production efforts, the factsheet clearly shows Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported PMS. This reliance persists despite strong calls to end imports and boost local refining capacity.

The Federal Government previously tried to impose a 15% ad valorem tariff on imported PMS and diesel. This was via a presidential directive to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and NMDPRA. However, the policy met strong opposition. Stakeholders warned that Nigeria had not yet achieved self-sufficiency. The government later reversed the directive.

Industry players also raised concerns. They cautioned that banning PMS imports could create a monopoly favoring Dangote. Such a situation, they argued, would compromise energy security.

Dangote Refinery Battles Operational Bottlenecks

The Dangote Refinery has publicly complained about delays in vessel clearance. These bottlenecks, they say, disrupt operations and negatively affect customers. In a letter to the NMDPRA Chief Executive, Refinery CEO David Bird highlighted these challenges.

He stated, “We continue to experience delays in vessel clearance which impacts not only the refinery operations but also our customers, adding unnecessary costs and inefficiencies.”

Bird emphasized the refinery’s readiness to meet Nigeria’s PMS needs. He affirmed, “Dangote refinery is ready and able to supply 1.5 bln litres of PMS per month (50mln litres/day) in December and January followed by 1.7 bln litres per month (57mln litres/day) from February 2026 onwards.”

He urged the Authority’s support. This would enable the refinery to import crude and feedstocks “unhindered.” It would also facilitate product lifting by vessels. Bird added, “Please allow the ‘Nigeria First’ policy to work to the benefits of all Nigerians.”

The CEO also requested the regulator to deploy officials onsite from December 1. Their role would be to validate and publish the refinery’s daily supply volumes. He promised full transparency, including daily publication of production and stock figures.

Expert Insights on Nigeria’s Fuel Future

Henry Adigun, Director at the Institute for Energy and Extractive Industry Law, believes Nigeria cannot cease PMS importation yet. This is because local refining capacity is not sufficiently diversified. He pointed to Section 317(9) of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

This section empowers the regulator to issue import licenses. These are for companies with active local refining licenses or proven global crude and product trading records. This addresses potential supply gaps.

Adigun noted that current fuel importers naturally buy from Dangote refinery. This happens when its prices are more competitive. However, he cautioned that the refinery cannot sustain reduced PMS prices indefinitely. This is unless it receives support from favorable international market conditions.

He attributed Dangote’s recent price cut, from ₦880 per litre to ₦865, to two factors. These were falling global crude prices and expectations around a potential crude-for-naira agreement.

Professor Wumi Iledare, a petroleum economist, stated that domestic petroleum supply from the Dangote Refinery has transformed Nigeria’s downstream operations. It has reduced imports and enhanced market stability. It is also testing regulatory provisions under the PIA 2021.

He highlighted benefits like foreign exchange savings and moderated inflation. Yet, challenges remain. These include crude supply reliability, infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory overreach, and market concentration.

Professor Iledare recommended several priority actions. These include operationalizing transparent supply arrangements. Enforcing PIA provisions and de-bottlenecking logistics are also crucial. Oversight of competition and ensuring data transparency through public dashboards are vital.

He concluded that Nigeria must monitor key metrics. These include refinery output, pricing patterns, import volumes, scarcity incidents, and logistics KPIs. This ensures a balanced downstream market.