The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has significantly boosted the nation’s coffers. It remitted a staggering N8.79 trillion to the Federation Account between January and October this year. This account is jointly managed by the federal, state, and local governments.

Strong October Performance Boosts National Revenue

Data from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shows a remarkable surge in October’s revenue. NUPRC remitted N873.10 billion to the Federation Account in October alone.

This represents a 17.67 percent increase from the N741.99 billion collected in September. It signals improved operational performance by the commission. This growth occurred despite ongoing volatility in the crude oil market.

Funds for the month came from several key sources. These include royalty collections, gas flare penalties, rentals, and various miscellaneous oil revenues.

Understanding NUPRC’s Comprehensive Remittances

The total NUPRC performance from January to October is precisely N8,795,528,705,538.82. This figure includes N1,021,550,672,578.87 from NNPC Ltd JV & PSC (Production Sharing Contract) royalty receivables for the same period. It also incorporates N835,689,852,435.38 from Project Gazelle receipts in November 2024. These details were outlined in the FAAC document.

NUPRC clarified that no Project Gazelle receivables were due for December 2024. Similarly, none were due for February, August, September, and October of this year.

Fiscal Impact Amidst Economic Headwinds

October’s improved revenue arrived at a critical time. The federal government faces significant fiscal pressures and exchange rate challenges. Declining oil production, largely due to facility downtime, also adds to these challenges.

The 17.7 percent month-on-month rise in October provided a temporary financial relief. It boosted federal allocations. This helped states and local governments meet their recurrent spending obligations.

Despite this, a 27.53 percent underperformance against the budget was noted. This highlights the urgent need for more efforts. Such efforts should stabilise production volumes and enforce compliance. They should also deepen reforms across the upstream oil sector.

Addressing Outstanding Statutory Obligations

The FAAC document further revealed NNPC’s outstanding obligations. At the October meeting, these stood at $1,480,610,652.58 for oil liftings. For royalty receivables, the amount was N6,332,884,316,237.13.

From these totals, certain outstanding obligations were ‘nil off.’ This amounted to $1,421,727,723.00 and N5,573,895,769,388.45 respectively.

The document confirmed that NUPRC has “passed the appropriate accounting entries as approved.”

NUPRC reported the remaining outstanding statutory obligations for NNPC from January to October. According to the FAAC report, these include $56,808,752.32 for PSC and MCA (Modified Carry Agreement) liftings. Also, N1,021,550,672,578.87 remains for JV royalty receivables.

However, NUPRC received $55,003,997.00 from these outstanding amounts during the month. This leaves a balance of $1,804,755.32 and N1,021,550,672,578.87. The $55,003,997.00 received contributes to the total collection shared by the federation in November.

Persistent Challenges and Recovery Signals

Despite October’s strong month-on-month growth, collections still fell short of the approved monthly budget. Revenue projection was N1.204 trillion. Actual collections reached only 72.47 percent of this target. This resulted in a negative variance of N331.70 billion.

NUPRC attributed this shortfall to two main factors. These are fluctuations in crude oil prices and a notable drop in crude oil production. These issues have consistently impacted government revenue projections this year.

Despite these challenges, the commission’s improved performance over the previous month offered relief. Both federal and state governments heavily rely on oil-linked revenues.

Mixed Performance Across Revenue Streams

A review of revenue categories revealed mixed performance. Oil and gas royalties for October stood at N807.08 billion. This was 70.54 percent of the monthly budget for this category. Although below target, it showed a significant recovery. This figure increased by N143.28 billion from September’s N663.80 billion.

NUPRC collected N61.70 billion from gas flare penalties. This surpassed both the budgeted amount and the previous month’s figures. It represented 105.52 percent of the monthly target. This was also a modest month-on-month increase.

October’s rental revenue reached N3.60 billion. This was higher than September’s N2.16 billion. It showed a positive variance, marking 65.15 percent month-on-month growth.

However, collections in the miscellaneous category saw a sharp drop. They fell to N0.394 billion. This was significantly below expected levels and September’s N5.62 billion. It marked the steepest decline across all categories.

Overall, the total revenue of N873.10 billion for October surpassed the previous month’s performance. It exceeded it by N131.12 billion. This reinforces a steady recovery after earlier fluctuations experienced this year.