The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has remitted a substantial ₦8.79 trillion to the Federation Account. These funds were contributed between January and October of this year. The Federation Account is jointly managed by the federal, state, and local governments.

Significant October Inflow Boosts National Revenue

In October alone, the commission recorded a remarkable increase in revenue inflows. It remitted ₦873,104,663,972.70 to the Federation Account during this period. This represents a 17.67 percent increase from the ₦741.99 billion collected in September. This surge indicates improved operational performance. It occurred despite ongoing volatility in the crude oil market.

Sources for these funds included royalty collections, gas flare penalties, rentals, and various miscellaneous oil revenues. These were all collected within the review month.

The commission’s total performance from January to October is ₦8,795,528,705,538.82. This figure includes NNPC Ltd Joint Venture (JV) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC) Royalty Receivables totaling ₦1,021,550,672,578.87 for the same period. It also incorporates a Project Gazelle receipt of ₦835,689,852,435.38 from November 2024.

NUPRC clarified that no receivables were due for December 2024, February, August, September, and October 2025 under Project Gazelle.

Addressing Nigeria’s Fiscal Pressures

October’s improved revenue arrived at a critical time for the federal government. Nigeria is currently battling significant fiscal pressures. Exchange rate challenges and declining oil production further complicate the economic landscape. Facility downtime has been a major contributor to reduced oil output.

The 17.7 percent month-on-month increase in October provided a temporary financial relief. It boosted federal allocations. This also enabled states and local governments to meet their recurrent spending obligations.

However, the total collection still represents a 27.53 percent underperformance against the budget. This highlights the urgent need for more intensified efforts. Stabilizing production volumes, enforcing compliance, and deepening reforms across the upstream oil sector are crucial.

Outstanding NNPC Obligations and Resolutions

Outstanding obligations from NNPC were reported at the October Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting. These amounted to $1,480,610,652.58 and ₦6,332,884,316,237.13. These figures relate to oil liftings and royalty receivables, respectively.

Subsequently, specific outstanding obligations were ‘nil off’. These include $1,421,727,723.00 and ₦5,573,895,769,388.45. The commission confirmed that appropriate accounting entries have been approved and processed.

Based on these details, NNPC’s outstanding statutory obligations from January to October 2025 are $56,808,752.32 for PSC and Modified Carry Agreement (MCA) liftings. Additionally, ₦1,021,550,672,578.87 remains for JV royalty receivables.

NUPRC confirmed receiving $55,003,997.00 during the month. This reduced the outstanding balance to $1,804,755.32 and ₦1,021,550,672,578.87. The received amount of $55,003,997.00 was part of the total collection shared by the federation in November.

Performance Against Budgetary Targets

Despite strong month-on-month growth in October, collections still fell short of the approved monthly budget. Against a revenue projection of ₦1.204 trillion, actual collections reached only 72.47 percent. This left a negative variance of ₦331.70 billion.

NUPRC attributed this shortfall mainly to fluctuations in crude oil prices. A noticeable drop in crude oil production also contributed. These factors have consistently impacted government revenue projections throughout 2025.

Nevertheless, the commission’s improved performance compared to the previous month offers relief. Both federal and state governments heavily rely on oil-linked revenues.

Mixed Performance Across Revenue Streams

A review of revenue categories revealed varied performance. Oil and gas royalties for October stood at ₦807.08 billion. This represents 70.54 percent of the monthly budget for this category. Although below target, it marked an increase of ₦143.28 billion from September’s ₦663.80 billion. This highlights a clear recovery in royalty inflows.

For gas flare penalties, the commission collected ₦61.70 billion. This surpassed both budgeted and previous month’s figures. It achieved 105.52 percent of the monthly target. This also showed a modest month-on-month increase.

Rental revenue in October reached ₦3.60 billion. This was higher than September’s ₦2.16 billion. This positive variance signifies 65.15 percent month-on-month growth.

However, collections in the miscellaneous category dropped sharply to ₦0.394 billion. This was considerably below expected levels. It also fell below the previous month’s ₦5.62 billion. This marked the steepest decline among all categories.

Overall, the total revenue for October was ₦873.10 billion. This exceeded the previous month’s performance by ₦131.12 billion. It reinforces a steady recovery following earlier fluctuations in the year.